Ezra links approvingly to a Wonk Room post complaining about Wired's new environmentalist-baiting issue, which, among other things, decries green enthusiasm for organic farming as detrimental to the more important cause of reducing greenhouse emissions.
The author, Paulina Borsook, doesn't challenge the article's contention that organic farming is less productive than conventional farming. But she finds fault with the Wired article because its carbon calculation fails to include a number of factors: carbon emitted transporting fertilizer, pesticides and hormones; the carbon capital costs of the companies that supply them; and carbon impact of increased healthcare costs stemming from the consumption of non-organic food.
Some of these critiques are legitimate. Some of them are pretty silly. None of them are quantitative in any way.
It's easy to see why. Seriously, how many fewer medical expenses will an average individual incur if they eat organic food versus non-organic food? No, no cheating: I said "seriously". No hunches allowed. You have to actually cite data and do the math. Good luck. I'd be impressed if you even manage to come up with a plausible justification for your answer's order of magnitude.
Doing this stuff is impossibly difficult, as is amply demonstrated every time someone tries to figure out the comparatively narrowly-defined problem of biofuels' net energy balance. This is the first problem: literally every human endeavor consumes energy — and of course, it's very hard to reduce any action in civilization to just one step. It's tough to figure out how much energy something took, very tough to accurately guess, and nearly impossible to know how much carbon it took to generate that energy.
This came up when I was out in San Francisco for work (a trip that was unambiguously environmentally awful, I'll be the first to admit). Over beers Michael told a story about a passenger on his flight jealously guarding his trash, refusing to surrender it to the flight attendants unless they promised it would be recycled.
But it's not that easy, right? Last I heard, metal is unambiguously beneficial to recycle; glass takes more energy to recycle than it's worth; and plastic — well, who knows? It probably depends on the type of plastic and where the recycling plant is.
Or take the great coffee cup debate: if a given ceramic mug is likely to get less than a thousand uses, you're better off drinking from a styrofoam cup. Probably, anyway. I'm sure it depends on your dishwasher, or its settings. Or if you don't have a dishwasher. Or the detergent you buy. And probably how far you are from the water pumping station, right? Maybe how much rain your area gets, or has gotten this year, or what floor you live on.
Which is the other problem: as individuals it seems like we all pretty much live within the margin of error on these questions. It adds up over the population, of course, but for one person it's nearly impossible to know what the right thing to do is. There are unambiguous things, of course: don't leave the water running when you brush your teeth, and minimize electricity use, and don't leave your car idling. Although sometimes even those wind up ambiguous: I've heard that restarting a car takes about as much gas as running it for a minute.
But then, I probably heard that from someplace like Wired. So who knows? This is the real problem, the meta-problem: while the only people with an incentive to really figure this out are academics, the only people with an incentive to talk about it are those who sell ad space to people targeting an audience that likes green content or an audience that likes counterintuitive content (both detestable in their own ways). And the press is more than comfortable enough with their anecdotes and innumeracy to continue publishing hunches they had while shopping at Whole Foods, as if a half-day's worth of googling and algebra was sufficient to untangle the world's unimaginably complicated economic and energy-use web (a pursuit that I admit I've indulged in myself — but at least nobody paid me for it).
All of which is to say that until we actually tax or cap or otherwise price carbon, Borsook's counterargument is just as silly as the Wired piece. We'll all keep doing our best, but it's inevitably going to be lame and probably ineffective until we've got some reliable, unignorable signals from which to make decisions. Until then I don't know what to do besides make my best guesses, muddle through, and rededicate myself to an overwhelming sense of defeatist liberal guilt.