Let’s find out. This interview elicits a number of quibbles from me.

[... Y]ou never had the technology of perfection that was as available and as cheap and as ubiquitous. You never had Google Glasses before, you never had self-driving cars, you never had doors that recognise who you are and let you in.

We still don’t have two of those things; declaring them “technologies of perfection” seems premature. Wikipedia says we’ve had the third technology for about four millennia.  I agree that connecting the system to Klout instead of  human-mediated systems of status-determination is annoying, but it seems like an incremental change.

If [Valley royalty with political ambitions] join the Democrats or the Republicans, then it would be very boring. If some of them decide to go and resurrect the democracy movement, then that would be very exciting to write about.

It was initially a bit gobsmacking to see a critic of Silicon Valley’s political naivete declare that an tech-led attempt to create a third party would be “very exciting to write about.” But perhaps he finds this exciting in the same sense that a hunter looks forward to a deer wandering into a meadow.

In America, you need to drive and you need to drive more and more

Vehicle miles traveled is declining, and the global trend is toward urbanization. But his point about the potential effect of self-driving cars on the commuting equilibrium is well-taken.

As drones get cheaper and 3D printers get cheaper, all that can be done in a very different manner. And there will be huge implications for mobility from 3D printers, which again some people don’t expect.

3D printers are mostly good for producing alternatives to injection-molded plastic and, to a lesser extent, ceramic and metal, in applications where price and the strength of the material are not important considerations. Looking around my desk, the items that could plausibly be produced by 3D printer — without an expert to assemble other pieces, at which point the automation rationale falls apart — include a coffee scoop, a pencil case, and a few collectible figurines. And I assure you that my desk is extremely messy.

Products like this are mostly imported and cost basically nothing, and consequently there’s not going to be a ton of capital available to build a huge same-day iPhone case-manufacturing infrastructure. Yes, Staples is going to offer in-store 3D printing, and yes, I am pretty excited about it for hobbyist reasons. But it’s going to be a niche. This technology will continue to have a growing impact on industrial design (where it’s been in use for decades), fabrication of bespoke objects like running shoes and medical implants, and might make some consumer goods slightly more feasibly repairable. But I think people are confusing “how super-cool is this technology?” with “how likely is this technology to change how we live and work?” Seriously, go give Thingiverse a good look. It’s lovely work, and some of it would be quite handy (albeit wildly expensive compared to existing injection-molded or stamped alternatives). But not that much of it.

Most useful objects are made of multiple materials, and 3D printing is not yet very good at that kind of fabrication. Perhaps it will grow to be! In the meantime, I suggest that optimists try pricing a pick-and-place machine, then imagine what it might cost to buy one that works in three dimensions. My next pair of sneakers could be 3D printed; parts of my next bicycle probably will be; my next kneecap certainly ought to be. But this is a tiny fraction of the manufactured world.

I have loved the Toynbee tiles for a while. They’re all over the east coast, and Philadelphia in particular. There’s something urgent and singular about them. I’d looked the phenomenon up on Wikipedia a few times, but what I found was always just a description of a mystery.

But it’s a mystery that turns out to be solved. My colleague Bob pointed me toward this documentary, which I watched tonight and really enjoyed. I won’t say it’s the most artfully composed film, but the story it tells is wonderful.

The underlying impetus is necessarily about mental illness, and as with every fascinating story in this vein, one is all but certain to find tragedy if the temptation to keep digging is indulged for too long. Luckily (though perhaps also callously) the film avoids this, while still convincingly explaining the Toynbee tile mystery.

Spoiler alert, I guess: one industrious stranger has been fixated, for decades, upon the idea that science will be able to deliver the afterlife that he feels God has promised but failed to deliver. Molecules will be traced to their historical source, and reassembled, and life will be renewed. On Jupiter.

It’s crazy, of course, but watching the movie’s subjects trace minute particles of information through decades, assembling them into a completely coherent whole–it’s a thing to behold, and makes the tiles’ thesis seem a little less nuts.

(Also worth noting: the extent to which this investigation is enabled by the internet has to give pause to anyone worried about our modern panopticon. The film doesn’t dwell on this point, but it’s absolutely clear that this mystery would have persisted–and perhaps never even been noticed–in the days before the net.)

I’m sympathetic to what Matt says here, but I think he misses the bigger value of Twitter snark: as long as journalists and experts use Twitter for social ends (whether by telling the best snarky joke or whatever) their participation in the medium will remain at least somewhat grounded.

The alternative is to make the professionalization of Twitter complete. I already have quite enough of that, thanks — I don’t need more of people pushing their day’s clips at me through pathetically thin news-hook framing in what amounts to a really shitty, lossy RSS reader. Who would want that? I know it’s fun when you’re the one staring at ChartBeat (I do it all the time!), but for the people on the other end of the equation it’s a drag, even if they don’t realize it.

The great thing about Twitter is that you can absorb the thinking of and even interact with people who have a huge amount of expertise, who might be inaccessible via other means. They’re steeped in whatever it is they work on constantly, and if you follow them you’ll start to understand their perspective and vocabulary. But that works best when they’re being honest. Honesty means direct, non-calculated, first-order interaction with the medium. And that won’t happen unless they’re able to satisfy human drives other than the need for clickthroughs, which to be honest seems like it might not have even been in Maslow’s hierarchy in the first draft.

I’m glad that Nick Beaudrot has figured out that he wants to interact with Twitter on a more limited basis, I wish him luck with his self-promotion-only strategy, and if I had been following him before now I would cease doing so immediately.

UPDATE: It occurs to me that I wrote something similar a few years ago. The framing’s different, but the upshot — that social network users attempting to avoid trivial content become a free rider problem — seems relevant.

The folks at the Sk/oll W/orld Forum were nice enough to let me write some rambling thoughts about “Big Data” for publication in, I’m guessing, a glossy brochure that will be flipped through if any of their event’s panels prove to be particularly tedious. I am grateful for the opportunity, and congratulate myself for not making any of the childish chewing tobacco jokes that were ripping through my mind during the process.

Normally I would sheepishly self-promote on Twitter and leave it at that. But it is maybe worth sharing how the editorial process went.  I originally wrote a piece that said, “You know, this stuff isn’t really new–the analysis of quantitative data and its application to social policy are at least a century old, and we probably shouldn’t expect any sudden home runs. But it is true that some new things are being measured lately, so who knows, we might figure some new stuff out.”

This was totally inverted, though, to emphasize the exciting new types of data and to minimize my yawning ho-hummery about the limits of technocratic governance. And it’s true that this inversion makes for a much more compelling piece! The editors I worked with did their jobs well (though I’ll admit I have no idea what the hed has to do with the piece).

But consider this datapoint when you read things about Big Data, or really any technology. Unless you achieve Morozovian levels of learnedness and vituperation, you’re not going to place anything that amounts to “Don’t Believe the Hype.”

…or one of them, anyway, was released today. You can find it here; or use this, a direct link to the PDF.

It really is unfinished — chapters end abruptly, discussions are alluded to that were clearly never written — and the whole thing is written (but not formatted) in Markdown. But it contains an extremely high percentage of Correct Opinions About The Web. Here’s one bit I particularly enjoyed about the Semantic Web (seemingly since relabeled as Linked Data, basically in order to escape this well-earned critique):

I have to say, however, the idea’s proponents do not escape culpability for these utopian perceptions. Many of them have gone around talking about the “Semantic Web” in which our computers would finally be capable of “machine understanding.” Such a framing (among other factors) has attracted refugees from the struggling world of artificial intelligence, who have taken it as another opportunity to promote their life’s work.

Instead of the “let’s just build something that works” attitude that made the Web (and the Internet) such a roaring success, they brought the formalizing mindset of mathematicians and the institutional structures of academics and defense contractors. They formed committees to form working groups to write drafts of ontologies that carefully listed (in 100-page Word documents) all possible things in the universe and the various properties they could have, and they spent hours in Talmudic debates over whether a washing machine was a kitchen appliance or a household cleaning device.

With them has come academic research and government grants and corporate R&D and the whole apparatus of people and institutions that scream “pipedream.” And instead of spending time building things, they’ve convinced people interested in these ideas that the first thing we need to do is write standards. (To engineers, this is absurd from the start—standards are things you write after you’ve got something working, not before!)

And so the “Semantic Web Activity” at the Worldwide Web Consortium (W3C) has spent its time writing standard upon standard: the Extensible Markup Language (XML), the Resource Description Framework (RDF), the Web Ontology Language (OWL), tools for Gleaning Resource Descriptions from Dialects of Languages (GRDDL), the Simple Protocol And RDF Query Language (SPARQL) (as created by the RDF Data Access Working Group (DAWG)).

Few have received any widespread use and those that have (XML) are uniformly scourges on the planet, offenses against hardworking programmers that have pushed out sensible formats (like JSON) in favor of overly-complicated hairballs with no basis in reality (I’m not done yet!—more on this in chapter 5).

Instead of getting existing systems to talk to each other and writing up the best practices,these self-appointed guarantors of the Semantic Web have spent their time creating their own little universe, complete with Semantic Web databases and programming languages. But databases and programming languages, while far from perfect, are largely solved problems. People already have their favorites, which have been tested and hacked to work in all sorts of unusual environments, and folks are not particularly inclined to learn a new one, especially for no good reason. It’s hard enough getting people to share data as it is, harder to get them to share it in a particular format, and completely impossible to get them to store it and manage it in a completely new system.

And yet this is what Semantic Webheads are spending their time on. It’s as if to get people to use the Web, they started writing a new operating system that had the Web built-in right at the core. Sure, we might end up there someday, but insisting that people do that from the start would have doomed the Web to obscurity from the beginning.

All of which has led “web engineers” (as this series’ title so cutely calls them) to tune out and go back to doing real work, not wanting to waste their time with things that don’t exist and, in all likelihood, never will. And it’s led many who have been working on the Semantic Web, in the vain hope of actually building a world where software can communicate, to burnout and tune out and find more productive avenues for their attentions.

Entertaining, brutal and accurate. Swartz does more or less succumb to the dream of the Semantic Web again in his conclusion. But who knows, maybe one day someone will deliver on it.

I picked up this handsome fellow in Texas:

I found him at Uncommon Objects, a really lovely and fun antique-y shop on Congress. They had a bunch of beautiful old radio stuff, but this was the only thing I walked away with. It’s a strange little piece — just a sheet metal enclosure for a voltmeter, probably from a test bench of some sort. Those two ports on the front were originally for connecting to the voltage being measures (though the internal wires connecting them to the meter had been snipped by the time I got to it).

It took a little work, but I’ve given this guy a brain:

That’s a wifi-enabled Raspberry Pi which can drive the VU meter. I also added a red and an amber LED (also controllable via the Pi).  I haven’t figured out what I want to measure just yet, but I’m sure something will come to me.

I’ve been trying to get a VU meter-driven project together for a while now, but between the software, hardware and enclosure, I was feeling a little overwhelmed. Having the enclosure taken care of made this a pleasant stepping stone.  Details/thoughts/tips:

Networking

• Linux wifi is a huge pain in the ass. Finding a card with a compatible chipset is your first major task. Lady Ada has helpfully identified a pretty cheap one and sells it here. I bought a slightly cheaper Monoprice card with my BeagleBone in mind, and it works fine with the Pi’s default Raspbian distro — no messing with firmware downloads or ‘nothin.
• Wifi cards suck up a lot of juice, and the Pi can’t supply very much over its USB ports. You might need a powered hub. The revision 2 Pi can power this adapter okay, but only if you boot with it in — plug it into a running system and the current draw will force a system reset.
• I hate messing with wpa_supplicant. The wicd package and its wicd-curses interface are your friends. But do not try to use them over SSH. The system flushes its routing when it sets up a new connection, and your SSH connection will get killed halfway through any connection to a wifi network, even if your SSH session started over ethernet. And then weird stuff will happen, like the wifi taking over the ethernet IP. It took me forever to figure out what was going on — I thought maybe the current draw of connecting to a network was bringing the system down. The moral turns out to be: use a keyboard and monitor until you’ve got a system that reliably boots and connects to the wireless network.
• I’ve got a simple Raspbian bootstrap script that updates things and sets up a Python environment. You might find it useful — though you’ll probably want to remove the part that gives my public key access to your system :-/

Hardware

• The meter was designed to measure a voltage range of 0-15V; delightfully, it still did this pretty well, despite being an antique! But the Raspberry Pi’s PWM only outputs a max of 3.3V. I had already bought a cheapo buck converter off of ebay before Timball reminded me that VU meters are basically just galvos, and use resistors to set their range. Here’s what the inside looks like:

  

  The resistor’s in the upper left. I dug out my old standby, reminded myself what a resistor network is, and added a trim potentiometer in parallel with the existing resistor (it’s the blue square on the far right of the second picture in this post). Through some careful tuning with a screwdriver I was able to make the arm sweep all the way to the 15 with just the weensy 3.3V of the maxed-out Pi. Hurrah!

• I also added a couple of status-indicator LEDs to the bottom of the meter. Their placement isn’t ideal, but you can see something when they’re on, at least. The meter wasn’t designed to accommodate them, so I had limited options.
• The LED holes and the entry point for the system’s power cable both required some Dremeling. Having sparks of hot metal showering your arm can be counted on to prompt some justified self-congratulation about wearing eye protection. Yeesh.

Software

• The wiringpi library and its Python bindings are designed to be pleasantly Arduino-like. Setup is  as easy as `sudo apt-get install -y python-dev && pip install wiringpi`. By default, you have to run your GPIO/PWM-manipulating scripts as root — there’s an alternate method available, but I couldn’t get the /sys/ GPIO interfaces to work properly in userland (though I didn’t try very hard). Ah well.
• Pay attention to the variability in pin names. wiringpi uses the pin numbers of the underlying microcontroller, not the numbers from the Pi connector. This table will help you translate between the two. Unless you’re doing something crazy, the Pi’s sole PWM comes out of GPIO1, which is “pin 1″ to wiringpi and pin 18 on the Raspberry Pi connector.
• The software I wrote to run this thing is nothing special, though there is one convenience library you might enjoy: pwmcalibrate.py. Using a curses interface, it slowly steps down the PWM output from max to zero, recording the active PWM setting as you hit spacebar, which you should do as the needle crosses each step on the meter. This data is used to create a calibration file that can be easily reloaded, allowing you to set the meter by the desired display value without having to think about it much. It also does some simple linear interpolation if you ask for a value that’s between recorded calibration steps. I’m pretty pleased with how it performs, though the meter itself seems to display some performance variability at the low end of its range. Probably nothing to be done about this, given the age of the hardware. Oh, and it will slowly step down the PWM when making transitions, if you ask it to. This is worth doing if you don’t want the needle to bounce around a ton.

I think that’s it. Now I just need to hook it up to something worth measuring. Or Twitter, I guess.

I haven’t posted my last two book reviews. In the case of Rabbit, Run, I was skittish about offering any thoughts on a classic that has already been analyzed to death by scholars smarter than me. In the case of Homeland, I wasn’t eager to express equivocal feelings about the work of an author who is professionally relevant to me. But those links work if you’re curious. Back to new stuff:

I wish I had liked this more. I love Swamplandia — Russell’s gift for language is undeniable, and when given breathing room, her characterizations amaze. The time Ava spends with the Bird Man remains among the most perfectly balanced and perfectly frightening pieces of text that I can recall.

I haven’t read her first short story collection, but I understand it to have been well-received. That leaves me puzzled by this one: it really seemed like Russell is still figuring out the form.

If you measure a story’s value by how much time the reader spends thinking about it, the first and titular story is the best. But it’s kind of a lousy piece of fiction, completely crushed by the allegory Russell wants to construct about monogamy and the inescapability of dissatisfaction. You find your Magreb, and you find some solace, and maybe it’s still not enough. That thought will stick with a guy, I admit. But Russell abandons her charms to achieve this end.

Reeling for the Empire is a fairly pat sci-fi short story, slightly sad but boring in its construction.

The Seagull Army Descends on Strong Beach is the collection’s fullest exercise in characterization, and it’s lovely in its own way. The relationships were a little too reminiscent of Junot Diaz for me to feel like Russell owned her own story, though, and the supernatural component felt vestigial.

Proving Up is scary but, again, recalled similar work done in a superior manner (McCarthy, in this case). It also suffered from plot holes and a horror movie coda that frightens but also injects regrettable narrative certainty.

The Barn at the End of Our Term and Dougbert Shackleton’s Rules for for Antarctic Tailgating offer the most amusement. Russell is extremely funny, but this is the only span where she indulges that talent. The latter story is really just a bag of jokes, an extended funny riff from a boozy evening translated to a writer’s circle. But The Barn is very fine work, I think.

The New Veterans is a mess.

And then, finally, there is The Graveless Doll of Eric Mutis. It’s about guilt: how one sinks into it like a pit of mud — with, sure, the occasional impotent struggle — but also with an outcome that’s been known and inescapable for years. Russell does this one right, but I’m not sure she can offer anything new to those who understand how this works.

So: not bad, but not great. I will reread and recommend The Barn at the End of Our Term next President’s Day. And I’ll wait and hope that the next thing Karen Russell writes once again outpaces my emotional imagination.

It’s no fun to argue with the dead, but sometimes it can’t be helped. Or at least, I can’t help myself.

I’ve tried to limit how much I say about Aaron Swartz’s death, because I’m not sure I have much right to say anything. I only met the guy a couple of times, exchanged a couple of emails, replied to a few tweets. We were not friends, and I understand that I don’t deserve to grieve the loss of him the way his loved ones do. That would be distasteful and presumptuous of me.

But it is true that Aaron was part of an embarrassingly small pool of technologists that I revere — people toward whom I do not feel my usual, regrettable reflex toward rivalrous, Holden Caulfieldish pissiness. Instead, I was in awe of Aaron. I told the PACER story frequently, and I read his book reviews with disbelief. (I didn’t realize it at the time, but I suppose I must have begun my Goodreads book-reviewing habit as a way of emulating him.)

I didn’t know him well, but I sort of thought that someday I would, when (if!) I had done something that earned me the right. The fact that this will never happen is something that I suspect I haven’t fully grasped.

I’ve been reading a lot of his old stuff this week, and today that included the chapter he contributed to the book Open Government, which O’Reilly Media generously open-sourced as a memorial to Aaron. Entitled “When Is Transparency Useful?”, I think it could fairly count as one of the “high-profile, public denunciations” that Cory Doctorow mentioned in his remembrance of Aaron.

Aaron began work on a project supported by Sunlight, but he ultimately decided it was fruitless and abandoned it before completion. This was all before my time, but I know it resulted in some hurt feelings. I’m sorry things ended that way, because in this case I think Aaron got it wrong. He had good company, though: people like Lessig and Clay burned out on transparency, too.

I haven’t, and I don’t think I will. My understanding of how transparency works is different, I suspect (and probably different from that of my colleagues). It might be worth writing it down here, in advance of the next ally that loses faith.

So. Let’s say we’re running a school. The school has a cafeteria, which is largely unmonitored. In political theory we would call this a Hobbesian state of nature, but never mind that for now.

Within this cafeteria we have a bullying problem. Some kids make a regular practice of socking other kids in the gut and demanding their lunch money, which is then handed over. This is against the rules, of course, but enforcement is imperfect. Sometimes a teacher will be passing through and catch a bully in the act, or a victim will muster enough evidence and courage to tattle effectively. When that happens, detention is assigned to the bully. Along with anecdotal evidence, the number of detentions forms our sense both of the extent of the bullying problem and of how effectively we’re fighting it.

Eventually, repeated petitions from the members of the Audio-Visual Club convince us that this situation is intolerable, and we agree to install some surveillance cameras in the cafeteria. We can’t monitor every moment of footage, of course, but we make a concerted effort at the start, handing out tons of detention slips. Soon the bullies wise up, the on-camera punching stops, and the detention hall sits empty.

There are a lot of potential problems with this. Maybe the bullies have taken to waiting for the A.V. Club by the flagpole after school. Maybe they’re issuing verbal threats instead of physical ones. Maybe the invasion of student privacy that the cameras represent is a substantial harm that outweighs the reduction in bullying.

But it would be pretty silly to look at the empty detention hall and conclude that it means the cameras aren’t working. And it would be downright stupid if we gave in to disappointment because we find our lack of bullies to punish less emotionally satisfying than the pre-camera days.

Besides, even if the system isn’t perfect, it’s still probably harder for bullies to catch kids when they’re running past the flagpole instead of massed in the lunchroom. If the threats are now verbal, at least fewer people are getting punched.

You can argue that other reforms would be superior, and I might agree with you. Having the school sell lunch plans that eliminate the need for carrying cash, for instance, might make this entire problem disappear. But I do think that the cameras were a useful intervention, even if they fall short of “silver bullet” status.

Obviously it’s easy for me to concoct this story. But there’s evidence that this is how transparency actually works.

It’s deeply unsatisfying, I know! Believe me, I dream about our databases leading to corrupt politicians being marched off in handcuffs. It’d make for some great stories — I suspect grant officers would much rather hear about that stuff than about unmeasurable counterfactuals (“Why should we keep paying for these videotapes when they don’t show any bullying?”). If I’m honest, though, it’s probably a better idea to raise the costs of bad behavior so that it doesn’t happen as much, rather than trying to catch bad behavior after it happens.

Perhaps this isn’t enough to fix things. But it really can help.

Paul Ford got it about right on George Saunders, I think: his gift is his ability to inspire empathy. He is sardonic and funny, and this somehow gives him license to pursue huge emotional honesty without readers dismissing the proceedings as maudlin.

This collection is very good. “Victory Lap,” the opening story, is astounding and scary and nearly overwhelming — I took it to be about the line between righteousness and self-righteousness. “Sticks” is brief, great and brutal. “Escape from Spiderhead” might be the closest to the Saunders I met in CivilWarLand in Bad Decline, writing characters that shrug through corporate dystopia on their way to pathos and transcendence (here, the point seems to be about the arbitrary nature of romantic love compared to the universality of compassion, which I’m not sure I buy but was certainly moving). “Home” is lovely, and the story that titles the collection is both affecting and pretty technically dazzling.

That same technical brilliance might be the collection’s weakness, though. It’s a strange thing we do to literary authors these days, holing them up at the head of MFA programs, where they can subject their own work to endless forensic analysis. I suppose it’s one way to keep them fed, so, you know, fine. But, having read a messy, confused and deeply resonant Dick novel shortly before this book, I’m not sure how happy I am to have writers paring themselves down toward some literary tao. It occasionally manifests as a problem here, most notably in “My Chivalric Fiasco,” which seems to be purely a technical exercise. “The Semplica Girl Diaries,” the longest story, pairs that tendency with the bad decision to revolve around a dream that Saunders had and found haunting (there’s a lot of nice and funny stuff in it about fatherhood, but it lacks Saunders’ typically satisfying conclusions).

So I don’t know. These stories are great, and I would recommend this collection highly. But if you’re looking for a place to start I’d probably suggest CivilWarLand In Bad Decline first (that being the only other thing of his I’ve read — Pastoralia is on the shelf, waiting…).

Ryan Avent has a very, very good article on the state of innovation. You should go read it. I come down on the pessimistic-but-waiting-to-be-surprised side — it really looks to me like fossil fuels were a one-time (and possibly impermanent) equilibrium-shifter — but Ryan makes a very strong case, and there’s really nothing I can disagree with.

I do have a handful of reactions, but they’re really just notes:

• Moore’s Law is doing okay, but I’ve read a lot of people worrying that its translation into practical processing power isn’t. In general, silicon photolithography seems to have given people a lot of bad ideas about technological progression being inevitably governed by exponential laws. I’d really like to see a kW-per-dollar versus time plot of electrical engine performance, for instance (I haven’t been able to find one).

• 3D printing is an older technology than most people realize, which makes me think they’re overestimating its upside. The medical applications are real and important; its implications for design processes are substantial; it will almost certainly become a useful neighborhood amenity, available at copy shops and the like. For manufacturing, its effects will be limited to expensive, small-run applications (like the aforementioned medical uses). It seems extremely unlikely to me that 3D printing’s economic significance will be greater than that of the 2D printer industry. Which isn’t nothing! But it’s not flying cars either.

• Predictions of sudden algorithmic progress that unlock new types of economic activity are more interesting, and clouded by two things. First, the Big Data trend story, which is a conceptual distraction that a lot of tenuously-relevant activity is being shoehorned into. Second, the research black boxes that are the dot-com survivors. Google, in particular, has bought up a ton of the world’s best engineers and provided a sudden infusion of resources to scores of academics whose work would otherwise stand little chance of practical relevance. I think we still have only the vaguest idea of what this effort will produce. The performance of GOOG over the next few decades could turn out to be a pretty good test of Cowen’s thesis.

• The extensive versus intensive distinction is new to me, so I’m probably about to apply it incorrectly. But it seems to me that fossil fuel technology is profoundly extensive in nature — it’s as if you can suddenly convert horses to a nonperishable liquid, and better still, there’s tons of it just lying around underground, free for the taking! These are new resources. Information technology, by contrast, is about intensifying existing activities by reducing communication friction. This is very important, but also the kind of thing that the market started working on in a serious way right after the telegraph was invented (and had been plugging away at before, of course, through couriers, postal systems, soldiers running back from the Battle of Marathon, etc). There’s an incredibly long tail to build here — smartphone-dispatched taxis, simplified appointments with the doctor, grocery delivery services you don’t have to think about — but it’s mostly composed of known tasks that aren’t sufficiently lucrative to merit hiring an unskilled human to coordinate. With enough of them, you can definitely make money. I’m not sure how economically significant it’ll wind up being, though (not least of all because consumers seem likely to capture a huge portion of the gains).

So, yeah, same old opinions from me: a lack of imagination paired with pessimism about the upside of the technologies I understand best (borne of being close enough to them that I can find their limitations dismaying).

I do think there will probably be some big unexpected thing that will make fogeys of us all. But other than driverless cars or a sudden, later-than-expected payoff to genomic medicine, I don’t see how any of the bets people are placing have enough upside to be the one that hits big.